Ukraine at the Crossroads – Victory or Fracture

An article by Dr. Yuliia Siedaia

Ukraine is navigating a year marked not only by immense external challenges but also by striking internal transformations, especially in terms of social sentiment, national identity and political unity. The worsening economic situation and shifting geopolitical realities are counterbalanced by the extraordinary resilience of Ukrainian society. Women play an important role, but face specific challenges. As evidenced by sociological research from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), the country is undergoing significant changes, in how national issues and future development prospects are perceived, particularly in terms of its orientation towards the West.

1. Transformation of Social Sentiments and Ukrainian Resilience

Over the past three years of full-scale war, there has been a profound shift in Ukrainians' attitudes towards their capabilities and future. While sociological studies in 2022 captured a phase of "unrealistic optimism" and enthusiasm, 2023 became a year of "measured optimism," and 2024 marked a period of "harsh realism." In 2025, most Ukrainians continue to display a positive outlook for the future, maintaining their belief in victory and the country's recovery. However, it is crucial to note that indicators of resilience are waning: the willingness to endure military hardships in the long term, decreased from 72 % in 2022 to 57 % in 2024.

2. Polarization and Division in Society: Challenges for National Unity

Despite general optimism, Ukrainian society faces significant challenges related to division and polarization, which have emerged as a consequence of the prolonged war. The most divisive factors include the split between civilians and military personnel, as well as migrants and those who have remained in Ukraine. At the same time, the war, with a common enemy, serves as unifying factor. However, further integration of national minorities, overcoming social divisions, and the improvement of the economic and social situation of the female population will require substantial efforts to ensure internal unity.

3. Ukrainian Women: Facing Increased Challenges in Wartime

The circumstances of Ukrainian women have significantly deteriorated over the past three years. Key trends include the feminization of the economy and rising poverty levels, a reduction in state expenditures on social welfare and salaries for employees within public sector, mainly female, and a substantial increase in cases of gender-based violence.

With the escalation of defense spending, the Ukrainian government has notably cut back on salaries in the public sector and social benefits, leading not only to reduced wage - particularly in education - but also to an increased burden in traditionally "female" fields, which are crucial for addressing the challenges posed by the war.

The conflict has resulted in a significant number of internally displaced women in Ukraine, with nearly 60 % (approximately 2.7 million) displaced as of October 2024. This situation is accompanied by socio-economic problems including access to housing, employment, and social services. A considerable number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and those affected by the war are in need of humanitarian assistance, particularly concerning food, sanitation, hygiene products, and other essential supplies. Poverty in Ukraine distinctly affect women, as sociologists point out, indicating a deepening feminization of poverty.

Moreover, there has been a troubling increase in instances of gender-based violence in Ukraine. According to data from the Ukrainian Ombudsman’s Office, from February 24, 2022, to the present, there have been 331 documented cases of sexual violence related to the conflict, of which 213 victims are women. However, the actual number of such incidents remains uncertain, and is probably much higher.

The problem of domestic violence, exacerbated by the war, has also escalated. As of October of the previous year, 8,185 criminal cases related to domestic violence were initiated in Ukraine in 2024, representing an 80 % increase compared to the previous year.

4. The Search for Consensus admidst of growing International Challenges

One of the prevailing trends in 2025 is the demand for unity amidst escalating external relations, particularly with key strategic partners, including the United States. According to a recent sociological study by Gradus Research, 46 % of respondents believe that Ukraine will continue its resistance against the aggressor even if U.S. support diminishes or halts. However, more than a third of respondents (36 %) think otherwise, reflecting the uncertainty about the continuation of Ukraine’s struggle in the absence of external aid. Among Ukrainians, there remains a clear demand for internal consolidation and coordination among all political forces - from the government and opposition to civil society. The support for defense efforts and resistance to Russian aggression must be prioritized by all political entities, underscoring the importance of political maturity and bipartisan cooperation in wartime. However, continued political and social unity will require strategic management and flexibility in addressing both geopolitical and internal socio-political issues.

Conclusions and Outlook

European partners play a pivotal role in strengthening Ukraine's national resilience by providing both political and economic support. The significance of European Union and Western partners' assistance becomes even more evident in the context of financial aid, which amounted to over €18 billion in 2024. At the same time, the great majority of Ukrainians expressed their support for European integration.

Nevertheless, overcoming internal contradictions and divisions within the political arena and among the population, while navigating external aid, must remain the foundation of Ukrainian policy.  A gender-sensitive approach is an urgent necessity in view of the problems described above. The alliance for a gender responsive reconstruction, with numerous partner organizations from politics, companies and civil society organizations, and led by UN Women, is therefore all the more welcome.

Veröffentlicht am: | Autorin : Dr. Yuliia Seidaia

Autorin
Dr. Yuliia Seidaia

Dr. Yuliia Siedaia is an associate professor, activist, manager of socio-political projects, and an expert on gender parity in politics. Her academic areas of interest include sociology, International relations, and security studies. She has authored more than 150 scientific publications and lives in Berlin. Before the full-scale invasion, she lived and worked in Kharkiv, Ukraine. From June 2022 to March 2023, she was a fellow of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) and the EAF Berlin.

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